An Educational Question and Warning

I am about to get singed on the "third rail," but what is life if you do not shock yourself every now and again...

I try not to be shy about taking on positions that opposition research one day will pull up and say, “see, look what he said here.” Regardless of what the future presents, today is today.

Our goal here has been to discuss the issues, warts and all. Sometimes what we say “tweaks” groups. I have lost readers due to the positions- “cancelled” if you will- for saying things people find tough, though I try to be fair.

This one should be right there up with my challenges to Prop 13 orthodoxies and the “build, build, build” mantra our State is using to try and solve housing. Build, build, build is not the answer when the question is more a supply distortion than a supply problem. The distortion is holding back far more homes than we ever could hope to build, but that is the subject of another Post already written.

Let’s go to Education today. I cannot solve our Educational issues, all I can do is point out the very obvious concerns many of us realize. Something needs to change. Well, the CTA et al do not believe much needs to change since their budgets are on autopilot, providing essentially $1,000 from each member to CTA’s coffers. 280,000 x $1,000, well, that is a huge number ($280 million if you are counting of tax payer dollars flowing to the union which exists to “educate” our electeds, called “the most Powerful union in our State).

They get 40% of the income our State generates, full stop. They can spend a lot of money to make sure that 40% stays flowing, shaping a lot of the policy discussion in Sacramento to the benefit of our State or to the detriment. Being the biggest recipient of the budget means they are a target and also a “king maker.” With great power comes great responsibility right?

If you do not use the responsibility right, “good ideas” need to be changed, like linking our educational spending to autopilot to keep the “battles of annual funding” out of the public eye.

I am familiar with the concept of “auto appropriations.”

A program called AbilityOne at the federal level functions the same way. They get contracts with the federal government (sole source or used to be), and for the privilege, they pay a fee to a central nonprofit (call it the union here). The fee participants pay was on autopilot, and “management of the program” was done without having to go to Congress annually to get appropriations. The idea was brilliant when the Program was $300 million a year in sales. When it jumped post 9/11 to today $4 billion, $120 million cascading through “the union” allowed them to lobby and support an ecosystem which it was never really meant to be, expanding the Program well beyond its original intent, landing the Program on CNN.

The result is something which was supposed to be simple now requires Congress to appropriate dollars to oversee a Program which was supposed to be on autopilot, essentially paying $130 million oversee a $4 billion Program, an unheard of number. Efficiency was hijacked because of self interest.

Shifting back to Education in California.

We all believe in providing quality education to our children, and if we were getting that result for 40 cents on every tax dollar we pay, I think people would be less inclined to ask questions. However, we are starting to see the cracks of the “autopilot” system. When incoming freshmen, graduating AP math, cannot do remedial math like at UCSD, that is a warning sign. When Mississippi is passing our educational levels, that is a warning sign.

Something is not right.

However, beyond our educational results, since we are not guaranteed a “quality”education, just “access to” per our State Constitution, there are bigger, structural questions which need to be addressed. The “deal” we cut with Education years ago (1988) with Prop 98 needs to be re-examined.

When supporters of the CTA “are not happy” with these words, I point out they were there supporting the Governor in the fall for Prop 50, a constitutional amendment voters approved twenty or so years ago, was something we “needed to re-examine in light of changes in Washington.” Well “times they are a changing,” as Bob Dylan said. These changes are much closer to home, and their receptivity and enthusiasm for examining change should extend beyond just their own politics.

Here is the canary in the coal mine- we are not having as many kids as we did. Furthermore, our population is not growing like it did. The hockey stick demographics of California specifically has stopped. We are reaching maturation. The reasons are myriad, but the broader trend is we are not having as many children as we have had in the past in the United States. Birth control seems to have worked. “Demographics are destiny” some might say.

The facts bear out. California has lost 430,000 students in the last decade, a 7% decline. However, our budget has gone up 40% since Gavin Newsom took over from $100 billion to $140 billion. Per pupil spending has more than doubled from about $10,000 per student to about $24,000 in 2025. Our student body trend line is projected to continue into the 2030s, with over 200,000 projected to decrease in Los Angeles County.

In other words, the model we have now is broken. Tony Thurmond said these words at the debate, but he was not talking about the spending situation.

Demographics are an issue.

And then you add in the budget woes on the horizon.

We got lucky with AI propping up this year. However, there are structural deficits projected for years after the “budget gimmicks” of the last few years run out.

The two biggest drivers of budget spending? Education and Healthcare.

Healthcare usage is going up, Education usage is going down. The two represent 60% or so of our overall budget dollars. Healthcare, moreover, is allocated on annual basis whereas Education is, well, on autopilot.

The “deal” of Prop 98 was cut in 1988, and the world is very different now. In 1988, California grew by 750,000 people, a trend line which existed for years before and even after. In 2025, we lost population again (we were virtually flat).

Our budget spend in 1988 was far different too. We had no supermajorities. The budget in 2025 dollars? $119 billion in 1988. What is today? Approaching $400 billion- 3.5 x. Good work for the education sector if you can get it. Not only did they bypass the supermajority rules to get budgets how they wanted it, they did it a very different time.

From that deal with Prop 98 we have seen a tremendous shift in the Power Structure in California. The CTA controls Sacramento and its interests are paramount.

Look, Education is a priority, and I am not undermining that fact. My brother is a teacher. I get it. I am a believer in educating and we need to have a properly educated populace to be successful in years to come.

In fact, Education is a huge priority in the future. AI will distill some of the “myths” we have labored under for decades as well. Classical Liberal Arts educations will matter. The ability to think, to communicate, to create will push new boundaries. Vocations, which were pushed aside in the rush to “college educate” the population, should make a comeback. AI will not be an electrician, a plumber, a carpenter. The trades will see a major rise. Craftspeople will also be critical to specialized manufacturing. Our system will be structured like it used to, but for a totally different economy since we are still using a quasi-agrarian, quasi-manufacturing system to educate.

The entire deal needs to be rethought and will happen eventually. We can do it before the situation dictates it as is happening to Pasadena USD or we can do it incrementally, evolving and adjusting to see what the future looks like, strengthening our State (and thus the budget the CTA depends on).

External pressures will mount.

Demographics will reach a point where voters have less kids and different priorities, thus the strength the CTA relies on today shifts.

The “old lines” used by the CTA will not hold.

The future is bright, and there is plenty of money there to ensure well paid teachers and quality facilities exist. Over capacity and inflated staffing/budgets is something else. Schools will have to close. There are just not enough children to meet the needs of the infrastructure. With regards to staffing, look at the LAUSD conversations in February. While the unions may have won, and Bass many have “closed” the deal, ultimately the State will have to bail out LAUSD, the further we go from reality, the more likely we will have to make major changes like Pasadena USD is having to do.

Small incremental steps are stopped by interests in Sacramento armed with $280 million in indirect taxpayer dollars (want to be a teacher, you have $1,000 in dues from your raise you get at taxpayer expense). We are paying to negotiate against ourselves. That is fine when everyone has kids. It is not when people are not affected by it, and they need something else. For insatnce, these contradictions will be more apparent when healthcare is a need and people have no money to get it. Look in the mirror and see what’s coming CTA.

Population growth is not a reality here anymore. Educating kids is less politically secure when your voters have fewer of them. California is going the opposite direction.

As Hollywood is demonstrating, the ideas to fix these problems are not there. Tax credits is the business equivalent of tax the rich. More of the same.

Without new ideas, without new growth in the State, the CTA and others will eventually have to pay the piper as we run out of other people’s money and then the hangman cometh for you too.

Or, we can stop the gamesmanship in Sacramento, realize the “amazing deals” worked out, and start getting honest with people about real solutions.

Hear me CTA et al?

We need to create wealth.

If you control the strings in Sacramento, maybe you can be part of the solution not the problem. If you are part of the problem, a reason why we are not getting growth, why our population is shrinking, then maybe it is time to look at your “great deals.”

Pragmatic solutions matter.

Look at the results of your replication of the business community you work against in terms of zero-sum Power usage.

Unchecked Power leads to the wasteland we have in Hollywood. It is coming to a theater near you too if you do not take a look at the reality on the horizon (or maybe not since we do not go to theaters anymore).