And a Note on Texas...

It is a co-dependent relationship for California- a mirror reflection from the other side of the mirror.

Everything is bigger in Texas.

It is a place which conjures a notion of “rugged individualism.” Its history is complicated. It is a twin giant with California in the American psyche. So much of the American west was influenced by Texas and its “cowboys.”

It was a Republic before it became a State. The rules seem different there as it does for California. In fact, many Californians are flocking there, enticed by the familiarity of the place (well except for the weather).

Like California is a place of dreams, there is something Texas does to trigger your imagination. For Democrats, it is their return as the party running the State. We hear all about Democrats having visions of “turning Texas Blue.” It has been decades since Texas had a Democrat in charge.

Democrats want to change that.

Let’s remember something about those “Democrats” who ran Texas.

They are not the “Democrats of today.” No sir.

They were Dixiecrats- Texas style.

The Democrats running Texas were a part of those who ran the South. Lyndon Johnson feared his ability to be President because of “the scent of magnolias” as he said. Texas was the South.

Sure, the Democrats “moderated” in the latter part of their monopoly on Texas politics, but they were not of today’s ilk. Most of today’s Democrats would call them Republicans or worse depending on the side of the Party you are in.

So, when Beto O’Rourke caught the attention of the media in a run for Senate in 2018, the dream of “turning Texas Blue” was a great story.

It was two years into Trump, and the media wanted to show how the heart of Trump country, Texas would go “blue.” Beto lost. They elected Ted Cruz, a bane of Democrats. The “Texas Dream” would have to wait.

In fact, Texas elected Trump twice. Trump won with almost 60% of the vote in 2024, the mirror of California’s numbers for Kamala Harris- Trump’s competitor in the election.

Sure, people are going to say, “but he won Latinos and they are moving away from him.” I will give that Gustavo Arellano. Can Texas go blue?

Well, it is a simple question with a complex answer.

Sure, anything can happen- WITH THE RIGHT CANDIDATE. Today’s version? James Talarico.

Texas’s choice for a Republican? Ken Paxton.

Neither is a heavyweight but will be overweighted as the representative of their wings of the party for this election because of the stakes.

In particular, Texas’s Republicans via Donald Trump’s endorsement, decided it was time to shift away from the venerable John Cornyn, a fixture of Republican politics in Texas for decades. Instead, with Trump’s endorsement the choice is Ken Paxton. He is a man who is accused of crimes (acquitted by his legistlature), “biblical reasons” for a divorce, and generally a person disliked throughout Texas.

Sound familiar? No wonder he got the endorsement!

He is the Republican version of what we call the “Surgents” here in California- MAGA style. For those lefties embodying the anti-establishment, you are the other side of the same coin as Paxton- and I know you love that (quiet part out loud).

Will Texas go Blue, follow the developing trends throughout the old cowboy west?

We saw Arizona elect two Democrats in the Trump era. His famous choice of elevating television personality Kari Lake as a Senator instead of someone more establishment feels similar to Paxton in terms of her ability to alienate people. Arizona was a Texas outpost for years before it became a State.

Could Paxton take an outlier like Talarico and make him a Senator?

Trump has done it before. He has taken traditionally strong Republican seats, and lost them (Hershel Walker anyone)?

Candidates matter.

Paxton is no Kari Lake, or Hershel Walker. He is far more adept at the “politicking,”, but he is flawed indeed.

Will the Media create an inevitability story to sell the Democrats on sending millions of dollars to the now “all important flip of the Senate?”

The Media have convinced us it is ok to accept a Democrat in Maine with a Nazi tattoo, who disparaged women, among other issues, is a viable view of the Democratic Party’s values in pursuit of that Senate seat. They tried it with Sara Gideon in 2018. She lost with the same polling differences as Platner. But, Maine is Maine, and Texas, is well, bigger.

It is Texas. It is the heart of Trump’s base.

We will see the entire structure on overdrive with the fact there is a chance to flip seats in areas where Trump trounced the Democrats.

What does Trump want?

He wants to win, and his winning is longer than just the midterms. It is about History. He wants to be remembered.

His vision is beyond 2026.

If he loses the House, so be it. He has built in his bulwarks with redistricting, IN THEORY.

If he loses the Senate? Well, he does not believe it will happen, but he is willing to roll the dice to remove the Cornyns, Cassidys, Tillis’ of the world. He wants to dominate the Party. He would rather have 49 of his own than 51 of those who are not his. If it means weaker and flawed candidates, he ok with that.

I know many think he is not a strategist. He might not be, but there are people who are working for him. They see the battle the same as the “Surgents” on the left. The game is more than one cycle. Paxton was a way to remove the remnants of the “old” and usher in the new. MAGA. That game is bigger than just a single Senate seat or an electoral cycle.

Is Talarico the answer to take advantage of the internal battle?

I am not sure.

North of $100 million will be spent to make him into it, same as Platner. If he was say a Jon Ossoff, I would be more worried if I was in MAGA world, but he is not.

He has flaws which will turn off Texas voters, regardless of the vitriol against Trump.

Outside the political media’s world, Trump’s biggest weakness is his inflation/gas prices issue, other drama notwithstanding.

He is walking a strategic line right now in Iran to address that question. He is coaxing the notion of a deal.

He has not gotten it there yet, balancing the pressure of the midterms with his broader agenda. He will push his long-term vision, true.

However, as he has begun crawling closer to a “deal,” oil has dropped 20%, which will translate into prices at the pump. If he gets his “deal,” and oil falls further, look out. He might have pulled it off. Talarico, et al, will be victim of the changes in the pump, no matter their “capabilities.” The Game is bigger than them.

Obviously, the Media will see it differently.

They will find a new thing to “whip people up about,” some new “injustice,” likely true and self inflicted by Trump, to keep the cycle going on.

At the end of the day, you saw MAGA’s take over of the Establishment. The bet is far longer visioned than this mid-term cycle. The moves, starting with redistricting, was to make the politics more partisan. It was a smart move, a Power move, one cheered on by the Left because the same effect will occur there- the Democratic Establishment is on the run.

Will it endure?

I am skeptical but it is their move and as I am told, “the enemy has a vote.”

Cornyn is the price, a very visible scalp. Paxton is the “new” assuming he gets through, and now Trump needs that bet to pay off.

Put aside all the Media’s words and watch the price of gas which will determine the ultimate outcome of this election. Watch the hand you are not seeing.

For those dreaming of a Blue Texas, remember, they continue to vote in Ted Cruz.

The Game is far bigger than Talarico, Paxton, or their ilk. They are pawns in the bigger, Power Game.

Texas and California- two sides of the same coin, inextricably linked.