Moving Fast, Breaking Things, and Failure
Matt Mahan and the "New, New Thing..."
Editor’s Note- The piece here is longer than normal. It takes the history and examines what happened in a campaign which essentially started in November 2024.
The bottom line up front- Mahan missed, but his miss was far greater than just him, it was a whole exposure of the idea behind him. The message missed. The Candidate was wrong. The campaign did not have the right strategy. The message was off.
It did not have to be, but the win they envisioned required a totally different approach. It could have been disruptive, the “new, new thing” Silicon Valley is famous for, but it did not happen. Why? Mahan was more John Sculley than Steve Jobs. His team managed instead of led. It started the process but did not thread the very narrow path available, missing the signals when they were flashing to move.
Here is the story.
A post-mortem feels early but I also think it is timely.
The Primary is still a week and a bit away. There are twists and turns to be complete, but the writing is on the wall.
As we see it, Matt Mahan’s campaign is over.
The Campaign however, was always more than a person. Mahan’s campaign was going to be the continuation of a surging role Tech was going to play in California politics, and likely national politics as well. The campaign pulled from national tends and pushed a narrative to “test” for what is to come in 2028.
It was not meant to be.
His failure represents multiple things at the same time. The idea behind him is right, the execution failed. Instead of a “new, new thing,” we got the same old. They tried to hoist the new onto the old instead of creating an entirely new platform.
The result? The promise of Silicon Valley was exposed as wanting in this moment.
What they do remains to be seen.
A Different Time
The time was different last fall when the Gubernatorial really started taking shape.
Prop 50 had just won. Reckoning over the 2024 loss of Kamala Harris who spent over $1 billion in 100 days hung in the air. Confusion about trying to find direction was real. Everyone looked to New Jersey and Virginia for clues. No answer was apparent. The D’s seemed ascendent, but which part of the Party?
Was it the rise of the left or the “Abundance” theory articulated by Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein?
Underlying the debate was exhibit number 1- San Francisco.
The City was a classic case study of the implementation of these new ideas as policy. They elected the child of Marxist revolutionaries from the 1970s to be the District Attorney. Quality of Life Crimes were essentially ignored or downgraded. “Compassion” was the word. The City was hit economically by a tech shift, then a hollowing out of its downtown due to COVID.
Homelessness and open drug use was shockingly permissive. Property crimes were commonplace. Nancy Pelosi’s husband was assaulted in his home. A tech CEO was killed in the streets. Sure, these were more than acts resultant from quality of life non-prosecutions, but they embodied the overall feeling of the era.
Rise of Lurie
People had enough, tech people especially by 2024.
The City elected a centrist mayor in the election. The change was result of an alliance between Tech executives and elements in the City who felt things had gone too far.
This was San Francisco- the home of liberalism.
This was San Francisco- the very embodiment of the “far left” to America.
The city was “spat out of mouths of Republicans” for years as the derisive description of liberals. “San Francisco liberals” was the term.
Was the election of Dan Lurie, a manifestation of a broader trend in our nation’s politics, a harbinger of something new? Labor lost with their candidate. Change was in the air for California.
Trump II
At the same time, we had the election of Donald Trump. As soon as he started governing, people realized what happened. The coalition assembled to elect him began to fray when his inner “shit disturber” came out.
First tariffs when people wanted to arrest inflation. Then immigration crack downs. ICE raids. Families torn apart. National Guard deployments. It felt like a war and the media lapped it- egging him on. Everything was on TV and social media for all to see. Clicks, eyeballs, and attention went onto him and the channels of distribution. It was 2019 all over again. The media loved it.
Instead of adjusting, he could not hold back his worst impulses, nor those of the likes of his advisors like Stephen Miller. He rode a wave to election of “revert to the mean,” and instead he unleashed a different, new kind of “mean.”
His base remained loyal, but those who held their noses and voted for him began to regret their decisions.
People were still frustrated. How do you express frustration? Emotion. Empathy.
If you want to challenge, you have to channel those two twins- allow for the expression of emotion while expressing your own empathy so people can identify with you and you them. Then, once you capture the twin emotions, to channel it, you need a plan.
Here is where the seeds of Mahan’s failure began in the cauldron of angst at the national level. The need was there, but he could not fill it- take the emotion, be empathetic and then give a plan to solve it. It was early, but the deck was already stacked against him, even though he did not even declare to run.
The Shift Again
The win of Lurie was seemingly from a different time though it was less than 18 months ago, demonstrating the speed at which the political cycle was operating at.
Activists seized energy again with Trump back in full form.
Meanwhile, our current Governor was looking to his future since he had a two year gap between 2026 and the election in 2028.
He needed to score points. He saw what Trump was doing, and stoked the flames. Trump was getting attention, so why not him too? Instead of governing as a pragmatist, he governed as a pugilist. Our fire response is a case in point. He has done nothing but antagonize because antagonizing Trump is good politics, even if it hurts the people of Altadena and the Palisades. He also took to Twitter, taunting the President. His PR team famously pushed limits. They had the gasoline, all they needed was the spark.
Prop 50
Then the combustable Trump delivered. He pushed his base in Texas to redistrict to swing 5 seats his way since he saw the midterms shaping up to be tough.
Our Governor saw his national opening. It was his future, or California. His interests won. Prop 50 was born.
Prop 50 united the Democratic class in their anger at Trump. Using emotion to paper over the divisions from 2024, it was a “fight fire with fire” message, no matter how juvenile the underlying premise was.
“Trump was destroying democracy,” we were told. The only way to stop him is to move to a more undemocratic model- further gerrymandering an already disproportionately gerrymandered system.
5 more seats in California to counter the 5 in Texas. Tit for tat. The people fell for it overwhelmingly. The mood was shifting.
Recalibration of Labor
Moreover, at the same time, Labor was finding its feet after a challenging 2024 cycle.
Trump divided the “organizations” and the “rank and file.”
Labor’s weaknesses also applied to its stronghold in California. The election saw non-labor candidates winning against Labor supported ones- Lurie case in point. The mood was shifting. Could people start to “break out?” Labor needed to instill discipline again to the politicals, but to do it, something major had to be done.
Dave Regan did exactly that with the Billionaire Tax Act. He went after not just a single business like DaVita, which he famously hounded. Instead, he went after billionaires in total, especially those in Silicon Valley. Tech Bros. The ones who elected Dan Lurie over Labor. The ascendant.
Labor understood what was happening when Lurie was elected in 2024. They also felt the opening with Bass in 2022. Their nemesis, Rick Caruso, was lurking in the background, toying with a run. Regan’s BTA brought the tension into the open.
“Billionaires are even better than mansions”
Labor needed a villain, and those who are responsible for the loss of jobs, those who are profiting from it, are an easy target.
2026 was on the horizon. “Mansion taxes” worked (see Measure ULA). Wealthy are easy targets. The groundswell was there with the Oligarch’s Tour. Regan tapped into the resentment of wealth in California and nationally.
He lit a fuse. Now what?
Silicon Valley’s Response
Silicon Valley and its denizens had to fight back. It was not Uber or DaVita, it was all of them. It was not just California- it would start here but go far beyond. How?
Their closest ally, Gavin Newsom, was leaving office. Even if he was to stop this attempt, who says the next Governor will? They needed their own now.
San Francisco worked in 2024. Even that famously liberal city saw the need to moderate. What about the State?
Importantly, could the billionaires stave off these populist attacks before the wave builds in California and washes over the nation?
Rick Caruso- Does He Want It?
Rick Caruso was vacillating between running for Mayor or Governor. He energized many in the Centrist Lane with his initial run against Karen Bass, thinking maybe someone could take on the Establishment. Importantly, Caruso, who fought the fight once, was one of them.
He had the look. He had the money. Could be make the run? Questions about his background notwithstanding, he stood the chance to continue the early wins of Dan Lurie. As a plus, he put a deep scare into Labor in 2022, so maybe he could do it again? He could push back against the likes of the BTA and whatever that effort will portend.
Caruso was leaning toward Governor over Mayor of LA through the fall, and then turned down any run at all in January.
Nobody wanted the job of Governor. The field was uncharacteristically cleared. It was an open race.
Any of those who could have had the job, turned it down. Padilla, our Senator. Harris, the former VP. Bonta, the AG. Caruso too.
Matt Mahan is the Name?
As January came to a close, the Valley needed someone. Matt Mahan’s name was mentioned through the fall. He was up and coming. He was fresh. He was centrist. He was young. He was tech savvy, liked by the Tech Bros. He was also critical of Newsom’s performative “sugar high politics.” He fit the bill on paper.
He was green however. He had never been tested on a scale like running for Governor of California but the money was there. He wasn’t the only one, Silicon Valley had never elected a Governor either. For all their “move fast a break things” mentality, they did not know or understand the political landscape. The two together could be potent or a disaster.
Mahan Says Yes
Mahan took the plunge on January 29.
I counseled at the time what such a campaign was going to represent and hoped he was up to it- him and his family being “all in” as I put it. It was going to be revolutionary if he succeeded. It had national implications for 2028 and beyond.
His campaign started slow.
He raised money, a lot of it in comparison to the other candidates (except for Steyer of course).
The opposition sat back. They watched to see how he would play it.
He hired “safe” consultants. He did it by the book. Their confidence rose. He was not a “move fast and break things” kind of Candidate.
As he was getting his sea legs, the big headline in a boring election of also-rans was that two Republicans could possible freeze out the Democrat field. There were too many of them. and none would drop out, diluting the 60% of the electorate which were Democrats. The Party encouraged weaker Candidates to drop out, though nobody took the advice.
March rolled around. It was time for the sprint. Now we would see who was real and who was not.
90 days till ballots are mailed.
The Rise of Swalwell
In March, we started to see a rise in Eric Swalwell.
Tom Steyer was not trusted by the Establishment. He was an outsider. He was represented by Mamdani’s people, not a California group- a heresy in California’s clubby political world.
Steyer tried to stop Swalwell’s rise early on with a lawsuit challenging his nomadic life, but it was thrown out. Swalwell’s momentum built, similar to what happened with Becerra.
Swalwell said the right things. He was television smooth. He was the “cream of the crap,” as my dad used to say. He was also hated by Trump- a huge benefit in California as a Democrat.
Swalwell started to get the endorsements. First the federal delegation. Then Big Labor, such as the California Federation of Labor, SEIU, and the very powerful California Teachers Association (CTA).
Through March his rise seemed inevitable.
Mahan’s March- Early Warning Signs
Meanwhile, during March, Mahan got a Politico write up.
He was called out by Labor in the piece. He was their target. It was clear.
The early jabs did not evince a response. He was not going to fight.
Labor had their guy- Swalwell. They had Silicon Valley on their heels. They hated Mahan. He was a “speed bump” by all indications.
Then he had his All In interview. It was weak. He was in a safe environment and failed to “land the plane.” The early signs were there- a lot of hot air and talking points, but the intangible things were not there. If he did not have the intangibles, did he have the instincts?
His interview looked wooden, uncomfortable, and scared.
The venue was his chance to break out- get some viral moments. Inside Sacramento, he was called “the AI Candidate” programmable and inhuman.
Labor pounced.
Their response to the interview? A piece was published in Politico entitled- “Many have tried, few have succeeded.” Silicon Valley and Mahan were called out.
Something was off.
On April 1 he changed his Campaign Consultant from Eric Jaye to TKO. Early signs were there.
Swalwell Rumors and Implosion
While Swalwell was rising, rumors of his issues flourished during the week of April 7. He cancelled events mid-week, and went into hiding. Something was up. Social media was lighting up. It was going to be big.
The Candidates should have been ready.
Then the story hit on Friday April 10.
It was explicit descriptions of the events with allegations of sexual assault. Swalwell was done. He was not weathering this one. The Machine went into overdrive to protect itself. They were all tarnished. They all endorsed him. What happened? It was a huge opening.
Everyone was covering their asses, especially those who so publicly attacked Mahan just weeks before. What would his instincts indicate?
There was no front runner anymore. This was California and a D needed to be there.
Game On
It was game on. It was the moment for the campaign. Could he do it?
His instincts should have screamed- “go hard and win this thing.”
The next week was going to be the moment. The Media of the world was going to be watching California.
The “clean up” was going to happen in real time.
His chief antagonist, Lorena Gonzalez twisted herself into knots to protect herself, falling victim to Swalwell’s “lies.” She had to get a “pull quote” in the Los Angeles Times's story on Friday mopping it up to save herself, among others.
He had them on the ropes. He let them off.
The Crucial Week
He had some public events Monday and Tuesday. Then he had a sit down with Dustin Gardiner from Politico at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. His weakness on All In was front of mind. The interview was his moment.
He whiffed. We used a fictional description to be as brutal as well could. He got the softballs. He stayed close to the vest. It was then his campaign ended. He did not attack the Swalwell supporters. He did not neutralize the largest players in California politics- the CTA, the California Federation of Labor, and all those who supported Swalwell.
He was not ready for the war which he was in.
The Portal Closed
The Media closed the loop that week. The door closed for Mahan. He lost initiative and momentum.
Swalwell began to recede from the public’s consciousness, replaced by a new story, a better story, a rags to riches underdog story.
Newsom’s people cut their deal. Xavier Becerra, another 4%er began his “inexplicable” rise.
Becerra was now the talk of the town, taking the void Mahan should have filled.
After the crucial week ending April 17, Mahan’s campaign struggled- putting out a “money back guarantee” to donors to the IE. He also had coordination issues with his IE as well which would evidence again as the Campaign came to a close.
Debates and No Movement
During the debates, he began to punch back, but never capitalized on the free media. Becerra had stolen the momentum by this point anyhow. Anything he did would be qualified with “Becerra” stories.
Instead of pushing through, he was still too nice, too wooden, with that “forced smile” he used.
His favorite answer- “as Mayor of San Jose…”
His “lines” were too “scripted.” There was nothing “organic.” AI Candidate indeed.
Mayor of San Jose is a Mayor of a bedroom community of tiny houses, neatly aligned.
It is a small fraction of California. Crucially, San Jose was isolated, like the billionaires of Silicon Valley, from the rest of the travails of the 39 million other people living in a State so complicated it could be a country in and of itself.
The emotion was not there. The empathy was not there. He was not “of the Establishment,” like Becerra. He had no fight either.
He was in a no man’s land.
It was a political death spiral.
Miss on Cross-Over Messaging
He also missed on the reach out to Republicans- centrist Republicans. They were being marginalized in Congressional races. They were 40% of the population of California and had less than 10% of the seats. They were also motivated, frustrated by Prop 50 and other issues. They had legitimate grievances.
Why waste a vote for Hilton or Bianco when they could get reform and a sympathetic hearing with Mahan? He never made that argument.
Also, he never closed with “their interests better than those two because he was a D willing to work with not only D’s, but R’s.” He was hated by the same Establishment they hated.
Enemy of my enemy? The perfect pivot and dance needed did not happen.
Becerra Consolidates
From the moment of Becerra’s rise, Mahan never could generate the momentum he needed.
It was never going to be the “introduction of him to the population” on his time. It was that crucial week Post-Swalwell.
He did not take on the Establishment, creating a narrative worth telling, so the story became “the unlikely rise of Becerra,” currying favor with the Bearstar Clique which were behind the rise.
The Wheels Fall Off
The ghost ship of Mahan has floated through the post-May 4th ballots arrival.
Things were going bad. People realized the miss. There was no traction with the electorate. No matter the air propping him up, Mahan was ceding ground to the other Candidates and turning into a second tier result.
As he receded, his donors did not.
Billionaires do not like to be embarrassed, especially the ones in Silicon Valley. They have missed twice now politically in twelve months- first the BTA and then Mahan.
They pay good money to consultants. They injected a lot of money to the campaigns. Their investments increasingly look like they are not paying off. Someone is going to feel the pain. Mahan is a visible source.
Reed Hastings this past week struck first. He pulled his money, taking the “money back guarantee.” It started the process.
The failure is noticed beyond Mahan’s circles too.
Lorena Gonzalez, the chief protagonist of the Silicon Valley Tech Bros, took her victory lap on X. She let everyone know Mahan was finished- job done.
“Thanks for playing Silicon Valley.”
It is over.
“Victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan-” the epitaph of Mahan’s campaign.
Soul Searching Questions- the Post Mortem
There was real potential here. Lurie has a 74% approval rating, so the model works. It seems Candidates matter.
The questions will be whether it was the Candidate, whether it was the Campaign, or whether it was something else?
Is it the message, the vibe, the underlying philosophy?
Nobody could have scripted the twists and turns of this election. However, when looking back, the opportunity was uniquely open for someone new to break in, to challenge the system, to put the Establishment on notice. Where was the instinctual push when the opening occurred? Nature hates vacuums and Becerra filled what Mahan could not.
Was it the advisors who missed it?
Was it the Candidate for not instinctively knowing?
Was it the message, muddled and too “triangulated” as the California Post said?
Was it the donors for picking the wrong person?
Was it the Consultants for not seeing the weaknesses and shoring them up?
To me, it was the message. It was too vanilla. There was no fight. There was no “there there.” The synthesis was missing.
Then, it was also the Candidate- he did not want it bad enough to be “all in.”
He pulled punches. Politics is truly war, and while you do not want to “sell your soul” to be a “Lyndon Johnson,” you also have to function in a world where there are “Lyndon Johnsons” who will fight that way.
I also blame the advisors. They did not read the moment as Lorena Gonzalez said. They tried to create their own reality instead of living in ours.
Leadership is not about managing the old, it is about crafting “the new.”
Mahan was a “manager” who needed to “lead” to win. It is ultimately why he lost.
The amazing part of this story is Silicon Valley is about “risk” and “new.” One of my favorite books is Michael Lewis’s about Jim Clark- the New New Thing. It may be time to dust that one off the shelf and re-read it to discover what is needed to shake things up.
2028 is still on the horizon. Statewide we have a Senate Seat. 2030 is a chance to reimagine these things anew.
The mood is constantly shifting because people want something that no elected, no party, no campaign has truly found- marrying the emotion with leadership and solutions, the “new, new.”
Unfortunately Mahan was more John Sculley than Steve Jobs.
Now it is time to lick your wounds and find the “new, new.”