News Update- March 18
Hope you enjoyed the interlude...
Housing Bill in Trouble
According to Politico, the Senate passed housing bill (HR 6644) is in trouble.
The Senate version is having difficulty gaining traction in the House and its the conservative bloc. Politico’s information conforms to the anecdotal information I have heard here in DC this week. Will the bill ultimately pass? The House Freedom Caucus is not interested in the restrictions on corporate housing ownership, let alone other features of the bill. The corporate restrictions are a talking point because there are other critical factors not mentioned.
Why is this single bill important?
CDBG-DR’s permanent authorization is in the bill. Will it be authorized to then get funding quicker? Will the rules stay the same or will something change the status quo?
We do not know. CDBG-DR is ancillary to the core aspects of the bill and the President will have to “twist arms” to get the Senate version through, if it is what he really wants.
Another big question is will the bill go to Conference or will the Senate version pass without amendments?
If it goes to conference, then it has to run through the House and Senate after it is “agreed to,” which seems to be an issue with this bill. Is it worth the fight? That is for the President to determine.
Meanwhile, CDBG-DR efforts languish and we get more delays.
Will the Administration push appropriations for something independent? Either way, another delay in our recovery is in the offing. Once again, we are fodder for the machinations of politics, and frustratingly so when we could have had control over our destiny had the State been more proactive in implementing alternate strategies like AB 797, like a Disaster Investment Fund, like a lot of other ideas proposed here.
They (electeds, philanthropy, and the machine) in California went all in on CDBG-DR and we are now 14 months and counting with nothing on the horizon.
The consolation?
At least we are not Western North Carolina, which has been waiting even longer.
Misery loves company indeed.
Matt Mahan’s Obituary?
These pages said Matt Mahan was going to have to do “something different.” He was going to have to blunt the support of Steve Hilton and convince those voters a vote for Hilton is a wasted vote along with convincing centrist D’s to come to him.
Today in Politico, Mahan’s electoral obituary is being written. His campaign has failed to move beyond 3-4% (Politico’s is 3% and today’s Los Angeles Times has him at 4%).
The Times piece goes further than just Mahan, returning to the “old saw-” 2 R’s get through in the headline but the body belies the difficulty of such a possibility happening.
Mahan is a threat to the established interests the same as an R would be. Lorena Gonzalez, the leader of the powerful California Federation of Labor discusses Mahan’s struggles, gleefully indicating that they can “firewall him.”
“For him, and the tech bros that are supporting him,” said Lorena Gonzalez, head of the powerful California Labor Federation, “they don’t understand voters and they don’t understand the moment.”
I am not sure she is too far off.
Politics is different than business, and it is not about an algorithm as the Tech Bros would think of things as.
Nothing in the piece however discusses the fact Hilton is around 15% and Mahan is around 3%. There are also a “plurality” of undecideds too which can still swing Mahan’s way. He would have to get them all to do it without Hilton, which is unlikely.
In reality, Hilton is Mahan’s primary competitor, not the other D’s, as we have said here all along.
The gloating over Silicon Valley’s failure is another element component here. Think the Billionaire Tax Act and who is most affected.
Mahan is Silicon Valley wading into the realm of Labor and other interest groups in Sacramento. It is a turf war. They have tangles. Uber and its propositions are one thing, but the governor is something else. California’s kingmaker is Labor not Silicon Valley.
In essence, Silicon Valley is being told to “F off” and stay out of politics.
The Machine is powerful in Sacramento and a $400 billion budget is a lot to fight for. Look at what they did to us in LA when they wanted Karen Bass and had a similar challenge from Rick Caruso. It is about Power not competence.
Another truism I have learned is “bluster usually belies weakness in politics.” Why say something unless you want it known and if you are in a position of strength, you do not need to make it apparent, it should be on its face.
I read these pieces as bluster, but I also said at the outset of Mahan’s campaign he was inheriting a mantle of importance. Centrist versus the machine was on the ballot and the machine is winning.
He has a lot of chefs in his kitchen there- a lot of money which is used to being the “smartest guys in the room,” and “breaking things,” as a norm.
While the contrast with Gavin Newsom is mentioned along with how Mahan is on the “outs” with the Governor, one thing not mentioned, but eluded to, is the fact Mahan’s “sprint” is coming- presumably.
The machine knows it.
Why else make it seem like Mahan is having trouble raising money from certain donors (anonymously sourced of course)?
They are concerned about his stockpile of funds versus everyone since he is number 2 to Tom Steyer who is using his own money. They have to stop him and his benefactor, Rick Caruso. It is 2022 all over again.
It would be ironic if he used the governor’s “sprint” strategy employed for Prop 50 in his campaign to win.
The question is “how,” and the hope is he is smart enough to realize what we have said here- he needs to beat Hilton and convince R’s the best course of action for them to be participatory in California politics is to support him and not another Steve Garvey.
The strategy was simple in that Senatorial election. The D’s wanted to raise Garvey to win especially knowing Adam Schiff would finish second, clearing the decks. Schiff v. Porter would have been an expensive proposition, tearing the party apart. The same is likely happening with Hilton.
Why else do we hear all about the R’s coming to the top?
The D’s want the R’s motivated. If the R’s abandon hope, if they abandon the notion they could but we all know they won’t have the governor’s seat, then Mahan stays below 5% and remains a non-threat.
Mahan needs to start selling the other point- a vote for him is a vote for reasonable government, focused on changing the status quo, effectively what a R vote would be, so stop supporting Hilton and go with someone who can win centrist D’s.
He is a danger, and “the machine” is doing everything they can to keep him and his supporters in the background.
Either they are geniuses and have “a plan” which will emerge or they are “fools with their money.”