The Long Con

Here is how the Game is played.

The challenge was laid out in the fall. Billionaire Tax Act. Suddenly, Silicon Valley “found religion.” What? Nobody knew. They just know one thing- blow it up.

They got their Candidate with Mahan in January.

Then, a glowing write up about Dave Regan and the SEIU-HCW Billionaire Tax Act. He laid it out- he was not going to cave.

Then the knocks against their “Candidate.”

Labor said, “you don’t get the Game” to Silicon Valley. Their Candidate was a “nonissue.”

Then the taunting headline- “many have tried, few have succeeded.”

Challenge accepted from Labor.

However, there was more than meets the eye. Billionaires are going to get their money’s worth.

Mahan then flamed out. The epitaphs were written. Headlines indicating failure, “spankings,” and what not.

Then the push back. “Hold on,” we are told.

Not everyone got “spanked.”

What of these guys Chris Larsen and Tim Draper?

They were “different.” They got through. They got a path. The path? Spend money “wisely,” with the “right consultants.”

Ah, see, “it can be done.”

Can it? Is it right, or right for “right now?” As people always say in politics- “as things stand today…”

Ah, now comes the internal battle within Silicon Valley for the future of advocacy.

The “six legged horse” behind Mahan failed. Larsen and Draper? They won. There is a way. “Pay up,” if you want to get in on it.

These guys and their Consultants got Candidates through the Primary. They also aligned with the California Chamber of Commerce doing a “primary pincer,” where the Chamber went one way and they went the other.

Sometimes they voted with “Labor’s Candidate,” and others, “not so much.” Who were the “not so much?” We never got that.

PR.

In their telling, they got there. They are on the Stage. The Consultant is even named…

They won right?

My answer, “Politics.”

Everyone knows it is a dirty business. It is a land of sharks. And a new entrant with a lot of money is fresh chum in the shark pool.

Silver tongued consultants in nice suits offering explanations and solutions which sound “so good.” They are the “Power” behind the electeds. I am not being cynical, I am being honest. Remember, the Consultants believe they are doing exactly what the client is asking for- getting people elected. If they deliver, nobody is asking “how to do it.” Go deeper. The Consultants know they do not want to. If they do, their “victory” does not look so “enduring.”

So, what they “keep to themselves” is the heart of the “information asymmetry” people enter into when they embark on their “political journey.” Donors want an easy story. They do not want complexity. They just want to be told “this is how you do it,” and do it. They want something “done before.” Maybe you “do a nuance,” making a slight change to make it “sound original” but nevertheless close enough to what the Donor understands. Your rules are clear- you want to be around for a long time and therefore you cannot “upset the Powers that Be in Sacramento ‘too much.’” If the donor is asking for one thing, you give it to them, though it might not change anything all that greatly. They don’t know any better.

If asked, you tell them you “get what you ask for,” but like with lawyers, “you have to know what you are asking for.” That they do not ask that second question because they are not told to, well, that is a different story.

The outcome expectation is a spectrum of something around “Access.”

Access equals Power.

Power is the name of the Game. You can either buy or make Power, kinda like bitcoin, you have to “mine” the Power or you can buy the Power already there. Power is very hard to “mine” trust me, I know. But if you can, well that is a whole different Game.

Let’s back up for a second though.

What gets you Access?

I was told early on in my political journey, “there are two ways to get there.”

You can (a) write checks or (b) get there on the strength of your ideas.

The former is the “Money Game” as they call it. The other, well that is a lot harder (the mining I explained above).

Both have short shelf lives and can switch in a second.

For the money game, you need cash to get through campaigns and “buy” influence. Electeds have to “raise money,” for the Party too.

But, ideas and visions are just as important, especially to those who are already in Power. Ideas can lead to Machinery. Machinery is where the “true gold” is in Politics. It is where enduring influence and Power comes from. It is the “mine.” It outlasts a person’s time in office and can be transferred. Machines also can provide favors, the real coin on which Politics runs. Machinery is the hard part.

What is a Machine? It can be something like AB 797 would have created something similar.

AB797 could have been something which allowed an Elected to take the Program created and apply CRA investments into their district. CRA brings economic activity. Economic activity brings jobs. Jobs bring votes. Then, when it works, you help your buddy in another district do the same, and so on. You need a solution to keep the Stimulus Projects going in your district and those union jobs? Well, here is my solution, and here is the favor I want. You had a fire come through and want to stabilize land values so your constituents are not destitute? Here you go. From these events, you build a network of favors. You can “teach” others “how to do it” to their benefit. The Machinery is so Powerful.

You see how it works now? That is how the Game is really played at the highest levels. Machinery can be inside and outside of Government. In fact, if you “do it outside,” and then “teach” the “inside” how to do it, “things get really interesting.”

Many involved in politics, donors or elected, never get to this point. Many Electeds go entire careers only doing bills, never getting to “the Machinery.”

The Machinery is something far more long-lasting. It requires vision. It requires time. It requires courage. It requires you to slowly build coalitions and interconnect those coalitions.

Instead, most Electeds and donors focus on the Legislative Process- Bills.

Bills are like elections. Sure, they can make a statement, but the statement is likely going to short if you don’t build something beneath it. Same with cash. Cash goes once the cycle is done. Sure, people owe a favor, but the favor is “transactional” and if the cash is gone, then your “favor” is gone too. You want them to keep coming back. You need them to keep coming back.

So, what I have read is Silicon Valley played the first Game- the Money Game.

Here is how it works. Money gets you in the door. It gets people elected. You can call the office and get a meeting with the Elected with ease. You get their calls when they need something. You are “inside.” They might even run a bill or two for you. They might even fight for you. But, they are also still limited to all those who also have money and where they sit on the “totem pole.”

It was told me about DC, “once the money gets involved, and it is about money, it’s a jump ball.” Money is access, but remember why Labor et al are so Powerful. They have the Machine. They turn out votes. Votes matter. Votes veto money when the time comes.

So, what happens to say, those that did well on Tuesday?

Look to Eli Broad.

They will get their Candidates elected. They will “spread the money around.” Then they will get their meetings. Their priorities will be asked for. They get a bill or two run up, maybe even one or two passed. Then comes another “BTA thing.” Labor or another Group pulls the Elected aside, and says, “I want you to support the BTA (or something like it).” They then say, “we need you on the team.” Then the clincher, “and the votes are needed for that bill, we can only be there if you are.” Then they close with, “you have a long future here, remember who you need to stay here.”

The Elected now has multiple masters. Labor or another group can get them out with their votes, and your patrons got you in with their money. If you cannot get your votes through, you cannot deliver for your district.

Your benefactor wants their bills, but if Labor is going to block you with their coalitions, then you are hosed.

You need to “go along to get along.” Your benefactors are going to have to do something different if they want their Agenda. You are now “consumed.”

Many newly elected people think they can “change the System.”

The consumption happens, usually over time. It is usually incremental. It is a bill here. It is a favor there. It is a Committee seat. It is access to higher Powered people- the meetings, the cocktail parties, the donor rooms. You “justify” it by saying, “I can serve my benefactors better if I play the game.” In the dark of night, it is about you. You want to stay true to those who got you there, but the System is what it is, and it is your career, not theirs. “They made their money,” you think.

The Consultants know this all. They are knee deep in it. They too are playing their own “Game.”

“The Electeds are yours, but they need more help,” they will tell you. “You need to spend more to get more elected.” You then hear, “we were successful, but we need to ‘scale’ it.” In fact, they tell you, “next cycle, with our Spreadsheets, we can expand the ‘chessboard.’” Then the close, “we were successful with our pilot, but now we need more money.”

The con has begun.

Labor knows. Go back to Dave Regan’s stories about DaVita. He loved it. They won, but he got them to spend way more than they needed, and he continues to deliver for his people.

Hear their “many have tried, few have succeeded.” They know the Game. You are not the first wealthy person to try this move.

They absorb you. They envelop you. You spend more and more, thinking you are getting closer and closer, but they know you are getting further and further away from your objective. “Closer to what,” you begin to ask.

The Consultants get paid, on both sides. They need both sides. They are lawyers in this equation- agnostic because their billables just keep piling up.

In fact, they get more money the “closer they get,” but then they “never seem to get to the end point.”

The con is tried and true. It has been done for years. It will not change. They will draw you in, “a fool and their money.” You will hear “in for a dime, in for a dollar,” used constantly when you start to question what you are doing.

Then what? Years from now, like Eli Broad and his Charter schools, you get the piece in the Los Angeles Times. Pay attention to the words being said.

Those who fought for the changes, spent millions to make the incremental shifts funded by billionaires with names like Broad, Bloomberg (a Mayor), and Hastings, their causes are now voting alongside the CTA, their opposition.

It is all right there.

Get the PR stories to keep the spending going.

Let the Larsen’s and Draper’s think they are winning.

They will keep spending. Silicon Valley will also keep spending. They have licked their wounds and see a path.

They will keep coming. They will keep spending. They will follow. The IV is hooked up and they will keep going. They are going down the old path, no change.

Their ally, the CalChamber is Powerful but it also has led us to be a very over regulated State- one of the worst to do business in for our entire nation. This is the most Powerful Chamber of Commerce in the largest State, and it has led us here.

Think about that.

The Chamber’s answer?

“Could be worse.”

Sure, talk to small business owners. Look at the wasteland we call Hollywood. Look at gas prices. Look at a retreating business environment which favors larger corporations who then leave. Their answer? More of the same- tax breaks for the wealthy, for corporations.

They are as much responsible for the dumpster fire as the far left- two sides of the same coin.

So, to those who think “leaning into” those causes will help, think again. Down is up in politics. Left is right. It is a hall of mirrors. The only reality is being outside the Game and pushing “in.” Without a counterforce, without an alternative, it is more of the same, just more money, more half promises, more good intentions littering the roadside.

So, take your victory, savor it, but see if it really is one or are you now part of the “long con.”