The Next Act

It is hardest to do the second as well or better than the first...

My best friend likes to say, “the second album is much harder than the first.” I agree. You spend years thinking about the first. You publish it. You get success. Then what? Are you able to get the second in place or does it just die out? Getting that second album, second book, second movie, and make it as successful if not more, is so much harder than the first. The world of those who have done it successfully gets culled very quickly. Can you replicate your success? Was it you? Was it your team? Was it a fluke of timing?

I also have said, “I am not afraid of succeeding because if you do, there are plenty of other problems to solve.” The context of that statement is advocacy. People in advocacy are afraid to solve their problem, for if they do, can they do it again? Instead of solving it, they make incremental, small, nonmaterial, but quantifiable steps toward a solution. Do not solve the problem because you might not get back to the table. If you keep the problem going, you are able to keep yourself relevant.

We are starting to see the above happening here in Altadena and post-fire. There are those who are “post-fire” entities, which need either a new fire, or need to elongate this fire. The problem is, many of the organizations set up to be an immediate response are now “falling off” as the “funding cliff” is happening. There was no pivot. Many will fade into the background as quickly as they showed up. The fact they are not 501(c)3’s, that they are using fiscal sponsors, allowing them to leave as quickly as they were created. Those who led them fade into the background too, if they can.

It is the natural lifecycle, the “fruit flies” of disasters if you will. There is a shelf life for every cause, and many of them were stood up in the wake of the fires and did not/could not evolve. They will move on as quickly as they came. Philanthropy is moving on. The culling is happening.

But, there are also people who have taken on a visible role. That role became the dopamine they need to keep going. They were more prominent than others. They were part of these public entities. They volunteered (or not) their time to get to some personal ascension. They tasted the sweet nectar of public life. Some were featured prominently in the media, faces on television, names and quotes printed in newspapers and other publications. The phone rings. The requests are there. Get here, go there. You are special. You believe it. You start to live it. You are Powerful. Your voice is heard. People sidle up to you at parties. They ask you what you think. They ask what you are working on. You begin to enjoy it. You begin to love it. You begin to believe it. It is a trap.

Can you stay relevant? You made all these strides. You did this hard work. You got “access.” The most Powerful elected and philanthropic people needed you. Business people seek your advice. People pull you aside in the grocery store, recognizing your face. They thank you for “fighting for them.” They wanted you to stand next to them. They wanted your face, your voice, your connections. You get phone calls. You get texts. You get emails. You got access. You went to the quiet lunches in special places. You were seen in public with those who wanted to be seen with you. Your cause was your definition. However, like all good things, the cause will end. You know it. You see it. You do not believe it. But when? You do not want it to end. It is fun. It is exciting. It pleases an inner part of you, an inner need you did not know existed or existed and you did not get scratched before.

The situation changes. You cannot hold on anymore. The angle of the issue shifts and your position is not as Powerful, not needed as much. People “solve” the problem you mention or the problem does not matter anymore. You are not positioned for the next stage because you cannot abandon “your base,” your raison d’être.

Declaring victory means a retreat to anonymity, something you cannot handle.

You search for the next cause, but it is never as good as the first. It has features, but the album seems contrived, it is not spontaneous and organic. It misses that authenticity. The motivation is different. It is about the “have to,” the “keeping it alive,” more than the “need.” You are searching for “it” instead of that magical “alignment” that was created. You try to stay adjacent so your contacts and context remain, but it just is not the same.

You project “the sameness,” yet you move further afield. You fight harder to keep it going. Things shift. People who were allies begin to move on. The calls are rarer.

The above is not theoretical. For our fires, we are already there. I have been counseling the need to “elevate” since last summer because the shift was going to happen. It will continue to happen. The shift means those who were involved at the start will likely not be involved at the end. The shift means the Power is going to shift its goals. The scramble will mean the needs of those at the outset will be foregone for others, needs which people today cannot see.

Someone asked me yesterday, what does that look like? I thought about it and think the CDBG-DR (federal funds, the $40 billion) example is the most obvious. The people who want it, kept AB 797 in the background. They could not “solve” our financial problem. It wrecks the talking point. It has been about the victims hereto, getting the town rebuilt, getting houses back up. But, that is shifting. The self interest is beginning to crowd the altruism. We are now a year in and the funding did not materialize. Where we stand is a watershed moment. If we keep going without solving it, staying the course as some in the Power structure want us to, things will not be for the victims anymore, which in actuality, they never were, but the victims will be forgotten, and the interests will be more important or already are. We will hear, “wait till 2026 and the House flipping and maybe the Senate.” “We will get money then.” Do not do anything to mess it up.

Really? Nope. Trump will still withhold it.

We will then be into 2027 and still no money. Victims will matter less. What will people do without Alternate Living Expenses? They will sell. So, at that point, do we need the CDBG-DR for the rebuilding of those who were affected or is it now something else?

“We will have to wait out Trump until 2028,” we will be told. By this point, Most will have rebuilt, as the SCE money will have come in or people will have moved on. So, the money will be for something other than all the causes set up. They are not needed. They will be less relevant with each passing day. What matters is what comes next, as we have been counseling all along. So, what happens to all those advocates, the victims standing up and leading a community that does not exist anymore?

This is the year where they shift to press the State to solve the problem of the money today or they go. Their actions against AB 797 sealed a lot of their fates. We had a path to funding, but they bought the line from the “bigs” hook line and sinker. They do not get it. Their fruit fly life will be over before it starts.

Their voices will begin to fade, a distant memory of a different time. They need to find where the next stage is, the next album needs to be, not what got them onto the stage in the first place.

Power does not care. They will find whoever they need to advance their cause. You are the one who got to the table, got on the stage, were useful for their purposes, but the Game is cruel. If you are fighting for something, you need to find that new way to stay in the fight, otherwise it passes you by. The stage you had became less. The phone calls stop or are returned intermittently. Your name is associated with a different time. History- you are yesterday, not tomorrow. It is hard to stay at the table, on the stage, constantly evolving, changing with your environment. You need to be past, present, and future, all in one to be useful. How do you do that? How do you create that staying power? It is more than about a single cause, it is a big idea.

It is about being open. It is about ensuring you do not step on toes because there are those who you need to keep yourself on the stage. The situation evolves. It requires different people for different things at different times. It requires allies who were once opposition, and vice versa. Politics is constantly evolving.

If you are living in the past, it will pass you by, it is just a matter of time. New people will come onto the stage and you will miss your moment. You will be a footnote in this rebuild.

It is the pull of history, the Game, and the nature of Politics. You have to understand it to be effective.